The mind cannot foresee its own advance.
Friedrich von Hayek
Welcome back traders. I hope you all had a wonderful holiday. It is now time to get back to the markets and make this a great 2012. This will be a volatile trading year with the major headwinds coming in the first of the year. There will be rallies as well as major declines. If you are a long term trader and looking for a longer time buying opportunity that should not occur until later in the year. If you are a swing trader this market should present both long and short opportunities into the late summer. The first six to months of 2012 will ultimately have more of a downside bias to it so please remain nimble. Those of you that have taken the InTheMoneyStocks Methodology Webinar should have a pretty good idea of my 2012 forecast. Last years forecast was pretty much as accurate as I have been. It was a great trading year and we certainly look to repeat that performance.
At this time, the SPY looks as if it could trade up to the $130.00 area. There should be very big resistance around this level if the SPY gets up there with pulling back. Should the SPY pullback before reaching that level then we may have to adjust that resistance number. Today's rally was lead by the financial stocks and the commodity stocks. Both of these sectors should not have all that much upside left in the tank. JPM reached my max move level at $35.00 a share this afternoon. The stock may hold up in this light volume holiday shortened trading week as it remains the strongest financial out there. Many market leaders rolled over today, stocks such as MCD, SBUX, TJX, and SNDK all had poor intra-day action. This tells me that this market is only in rally mode because of the light volume holiday and the rally is obviously on borrowed time. I'm already starting to eye some stocks to sell short. I will post everything that I'm seeing on the hot charts. January is always a very tricky month and we must try and time this market correctly. Tonight, I will post some max move calculations for the U.S. Dollar Index and the TLT. These two equities seem to be very good for market timing.
The master resistance levels for the S&P 500 Index are 1280, 1299, 1316, 1335, 1352, and 1371. The master support levels for the S&P 500 Index are 1263, 1244, 1226, 1209, 1192, 1175, 1158, 1141, 1121, 1107, 1090, 1074, 1058, 1041, and 1026.
February crude finished the session higher by $4.13 to $102.96 per barrel. The master resistance levels for crude are 105.00, 109.00, 115.00, 119.00, and 125.00. The master support levels for crude are 100.00, 95.00, 89.00, 84.00, 79.00, 74.00, 69.50, and 66.00. Please remember oil is very sensitive to adverse weather, geopolitical events, and the U.S. Dollar.
February gold finished the session higher by $33.60 to close at $1600.50 an ounce. The master resistance levels for gold are 1617, 1634, 1657, 1674, 1698, 1716, 1740, 1758, 1782, 1800, 1825, 1842, 1867, 1886, 1911, 1930, 1955, 1974, and 1999. The master support levels for gold are 1594, 1577, 1554, 1537, 1515, 1498, 1477, 1460, 1439, 1422, and 1400.
The 10 year bond yield finished the session higher by 0.089 to close at 1.96%. The resistance levels for the yield are 1.97%, 2.04%, 2.11%, 2.18%, 2.25%, 2.33%, 2.41%, 2.49%, 2.57%, 2.65%, 2.73%, 2.81%, 2.89%, 2.98%, 3.07%, 3.16%, 3.25%, 3.34%, 3.43%, 3.52%, 3.61%, 3.71% 3.81%, 3.91%, and 4.01%. The support levels for the yield are 1.90%, 1.83%, 1.76%, 1.69%, 1.63%, 1.57%, 1.51%, 1.45%, and 1.39%.
